The Line That Explains The Coming Housing Depression

I thought the South was going to rise again but you're telling me something else with that line

I hope Mr. Schiller has taken the effect of climate change is having on the availability of home insurance and the incoming Trump Administration's unwillingness to layout taxpayer money after a fooding, tornadoes or hurricanes.

Greed, and the love of money is the root of all evil, enough said…

Mass migration out of California and out of the cities is going to mitigate these factors. California crashes first

The biggest crash already has happened in real estate New York commercial real estate. Skyscrapers selling for nothing.

There isn’t a bubble there is a mass exodus of people out of blue areas and out of the cities. There is a weird dichotomy though. Rapid building of apartment complexes outside of blue cities at the same time single family homes supply is still relatively tight. It’s everywhere.

Overbuilding of apartment complexes might create a bubble in “affordable living”. Home builders unlike 2005 aren’t building enough, but apartment complexes are being overbuilt, imo.

But much of this will depend on Gen Z. The home builders anticipated millennials to move in at high rates, but most of them didn’t until much later. And it’s easy to see why as the median percentage of income towards housing is above 40%. If Gen Z decides to leverage up and buy homes or is finding more success in the workforce or starts becoming entrepreneurial and side hustle success at higher rates they’ll fill any supply. If there is a huge cut to section 8 housing as municipal debt and government debt is a big problem right now and Elon and Vivek have been tasked with cutting federal government size and debt to gdp is crazy high but municipalities are at risk too, rental incomes will fall off and those most dependent upon section 8 for demand will be most effected, further accelerating the exodus from the city to areas where income is higher crime is lower and apartments are being built. This trend can’t continue forever though.

L8 most trends it tends to accelerate resulting in oversupply where supply was once low and maximum movement until the variable creating the demand can’t continue, resulting in a crash.

I am currently in my 50s and This is no time to taper retirement savings. I want to max out my retirement contributions and I also have another $120k in a savings account that I want to invest in a non-retirement account. Where would you invest this as of now?

Overpriced real estate, out of balance Price/Earnings ratio, inverted yield curve, and the promise of widespread tariffs to come in January. The adage "don't try to time the markets" applies, but it's hard to see anything good on the horizon.

When the selling prices go down, how does this affect the community? We’re thinking of moving theThe Villages in the next few years. We’re in the northeast now. It’s not the highest sellers market as during COVID, but it;s above your “depression” line.

I'm in the Chicago northwest suburbs. Idk what to do I missed out since 2020. I can still afford the massive payment but the payment is literally double as in 2020 and with 3x more down payment… Idk if I should wait or still buy seems like the longer I wait the higher it goes literally this sends me in a depression

Housing prices are unlikely to significantly decrease until there's a substantial increase in housing supply. In the USA , there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping pace. The constant demand for housing, coupled with population growth, means that even a slight price drop attracts numerous buyers who quickly absorb the available supply. I'm considering purchasing affordable houses in 2024 and possibly venturing into stock investments. When is the best time to enter the stock market? Some people say it is profitable , but others say it's risky. Any advice?

Owning a home today isn’t as feasible or desirable as it once was, and for many, it's no longer the "American Dream." Job security has changed; companies rarely show long-term loyalty to employees, and people often change jobs frequently. Renting offers flexibility, if a new opportunity arises, I can move within weeks without the hassle of selling a home or worrying about fluctuating real estate markets.

For younger generations, homeownership is seen less as an investment and more as a liability. It comes with ongoing costs like property taxes, maintenance, and even the risk of eminent domain. Homes don’t truly increase in value; inflation erodes the dollar’s worth, which creates the illusion of price appreciation. In the end, homes are built with banks in mind, not people. The value lies in viewing a home as a temporary space, like a hospital, you get in, you get out, and you stay financially flexible.

Oh look it's the states that made it unsafe for women to live there and try to create a family.

I'm eagerly anticipating a potential housing crisis to make affordable purchases after selling some properties in 2025. I'm also thinking about investing in stocks as a backup plan. Any advice on the best timing for these investments? I've seen substantial trading profits, but there are worries about the market's instability and the possibility of a dead cat bounce. Can you explain why this market phenomenon happens?

Why does this guy just sound like a crusty old man rambling

You can't have a housing crash when there are more buyers than sellers. Interest rates are dropping and within a year they will be back to where they were two years ago. Housing prices will continue to rise across America. Even in the toilet that is Austin, TX. price drops have stabilized and will soon be moving up.

what do you think will happen to housing prices in Austin with Tesla space X and X moving in?

Mean of income divided by mean of housing price assumes both are symmetrical normal populations. for instanxe, if you were to hypothetically import millions of low income people would housing suddenly become overpriced because the ratio changes?

With the last hurricane that hit Florida, this line may have suffered changes 😳